THE PICK
MIA Miami MarlinsAWAY · 1523 ELO
@ Milwaukee BrewersHOME · 1559 ELO MIL
42.5% WIN PROBABILITY 57.5%
The model makes Milwaukee Brewers a 57.5% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 57.5% edge still loses 42.5 times in 100.
Prediction history
7 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
57.5% Milwaukee Brewers ▼ -1.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
58.6% Milwaukee Brewers ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
58.1% Milwaukee Brewers ▼ -0.9
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.0% Milwaukee Brewers ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
58.7% Milwaukee Brewers ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
58.9% Milwaukee Brewers ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
58.7% Milwaukee Brewers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 36 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Eury Pérez FIP 4.25 · ERA 3.78 · 85.2 IP
Robert Gasser FIP 5.28 · ERA 5.24 · 46.1 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · RETRACTABLE ROOF · DAY GAME
82°F DEW 53°F HUM 37% WIND 7 MPH CLOUD 8% 994 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
MIA REST 0D MIL REST 0D MIA TRAVELED 0 MI
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH -8 ELO
The numbers
What could break the pick
Miami Marlins are 6-4 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.