THE PICK
MIA Miami MarlinsAWAY · 1523 ELO
@ Milwaukee BrewersHOME · 1559 ELO MIL
39.9% WIN PROBABILITY 60.1%
The model makes Milwaukee Brewers a 60.1% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 60.1% edge still loses 39.9 times in 100.
Prediction history
7 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
60.1% Milwaukee Brewers ▲ +1.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
58.6% Milwaukee Brewers ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
58.1% Milwaukee Brewers ▼ -0.9
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.0% Milwaukee Brewers ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
58.7% Milwaukee Brewers ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
58.9% Milwaukee Brewers ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
58.7% Milwaukee Brewers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 36 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Sandy Alcantara FIP 3.78 · ERA 3.99 · 130.2 IP
Logan Henderson FIP 2.46 · ERA 3.18 · 28.1 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · RETRACTABLE ROOF · NIGHT GAME
94°F DEW 62°F HUM 35% WIND 11 MPH CLOUD 10% 990 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
MIA REST 4D MIL REST 4D MIA TRAVELED 1270 MI MIA CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH +11 ELO
The numbers
What could break the pick
Miami Marlins are 6-4 over their last ten. The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.