THE PICK
LA Los Angeles SparksAWAY · 1415 ELO
@ Dallas WingsHOME · 1686 ELO DAL
11.5% WIN PROBABILITY 88.5%
The model makes Dallas Wings a 88.5% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 88.5% edge still loses 11.5 times in 100.
Prediction history
6 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
88.5% Dallas Wings ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
88.1% Dallas Wings ▲ +1.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
86.7% Dallas Wings ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
86.4% Dallas Wings ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
86.2% Dallas Wings ▼ -0.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
87.0% Dallas Wings OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 271 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS
INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
LA REST 1D DAL REST 2D LA TRAVELED 817 MI DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER
LA Cameron Brink OUTKelsey Plum OUT
DAL Costanza Verona OUTHaley Jones OUT
IN THE NUMBER
REST +3 ELO
The numbers
What could break the pick
Los Angeles Sparks are 3-7 over their last ten. Even strong favorites lose outright about once in three tries at this probability. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.