Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction — July 22, 2026

THE PICK

LAD Los Angeles DodgersAWAY · 1554 ELO

Philadelphia PhilliesHOME · 1512 ELO PHI

52.7% WIN PROBABILITY 47.3%

The model makes Los Angeles Dodgers a 52.7% favorite — even playing on the road. One game is one game: a 52.7% edge still loses 47.3 times in 100.

Prediction history

5 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

52.7% Los Angeles Dodgers ▲ +0.6

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

52.1% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.5

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

52.6% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.7

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

53.3% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.9

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

54.2% Los Angeles Dodgers OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 42 points at open.

The factors

CONTEXT ONLY

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME

85°F DEW 58°F HUM 41% WIND 9 MPH GUSTS 20 MPH CLOUD 59% RAIN 44% 1005 hPa

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

LAD REST 0D PHI REST 0D LAD TRAVELED 0 MI

The numbers

AWAY

Los Angeles Dodgers

ELO RATING1554

RANK#2

RECORD61-36

LAST 105-5

STREAKL3

HOME

Philadelphia Phillies

ELO RATING1512

RANK#11

RECORD54-44

LAST 105-5

STREAKL1

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Philadelphia Phillies getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 42 points plus home advantage at Citizens Bank Park produces the 52.7% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

Philadelphia Phillies are 5-5 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.