PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 21, 2026 ● LIVE

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, PA

THE PICK

LAD Los Angeles DodgersAWAY · 1554 ELO
@
Philadelphia PhilliesHOME · 1512 ELO PHI
52.6% WIN PROBABILITY 47.4%

The model makes Los Angeles Dodgers a 52.6% favorite — even playing on the road. One game is one game: a 52.6% edge still loses 47.4 times in 100.

Prediction history

17 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

52.6% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.7% Los Angeles Dodgers ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.6% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.7% Los Angeles Dodgers ▲ +0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.1% Los Angeles Dodgers ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.8% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.9% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.1% Los Angeles Dodgers ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.9% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.1% Los Angeles Dodgers ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.9% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.1% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.6% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.3% Los Angeles Dodgers ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.1% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -1.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.2% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
54.7% Los Angeles Dodgers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 42 points at open.

The factors

1 IN THE NUMBER

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME

74°F DEW 71°F HUM 92% WIND 7 MPH CLOUD 100% RAIN 47% 1006 hPa

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

LAD REST 0D PHI REST 0D LAD TRAVELED 0 MI

IN THE NUMBER

WXRAIN VARIANCE

The numbers

AWAY

Los Angeles Dodgers
ELO RATING1554
RANK#2
RECORD61-36
LAST 105-5
STREAKL3

HOME

Philadelphia Phillies
ELO RATING1512
RANK#11
RECORD54-44
LAST 105-5
STREAKL1

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Philadelphia Phillies getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 42 points plus home advantage at Citizens Bank Park produces the 52.6% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

Philadelphia Phillies are 5-5 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.