THE PICK
LAD Los Angeles DodgersAWAY · 1554 ELO
@ New York YankeesHOME · 1524 ELO NYY
50.4% WIN PROBABILITY 49.6%
The model makes Los Angeles Dodgers a 50.4% favorite — even playing on the road.
One game is one game: a 50.4% edge still loses 49.6 times in 100.
Prediction history
13 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
50.4% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.8% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.9% Los Angeles Dodgers ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.8% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.9% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.0% Los Angeles Dodgers ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.9% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.0% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.5% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.9% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -1.0
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.9% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.3% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -1.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.6% Los Angeles Dodgers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 30 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Emmet Sheehan FIP 4.34 · ERA 4.81 · 82.1 IP
Ryan Weathers FIP 3.87 · ERA 4.15 · 97.2 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME
75°F DEW 72°F HUM 90% WIND 9 MPH GUSTS 21 MPH CLOUD 74% RAIN 37% 1006 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
LAD REST 0D NYY REST 0D LAD TRAVELED 0 MI INTERLEAGUE
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH +4 ELO
The numbers
AWAY
Los Angeles Dodgers ELO RATING1554
RANK#2
RECORD61-36
LAST 105-5
STREAKL3
HOME
New York Yankees ELO RATING1524
RANK#6
RECORD54-42
LAST 106-4
STREAKW4
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with New York Yankees getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 30 points plus home advantage at Yankee Stadium produces
the 50.4% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
New York Yankees come in hot on a 4-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.