THE PICK
LAD Los Angeles DodgersAWAY · 1554 ELO
@ New York YankeesHOME · 1524 ELO NYY
49.2% WIN PROBABILITY 50.8%
The model makes New York Yankees a 50.8% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 50.8% edge still loses 49.2 times in 100.
Prediction history
7 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
50.8% New York Yankees ▲ +1.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.0% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.5% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.9% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -1.0
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.9% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.3% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -1.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
54.6% Los Angeles Dodgers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 30 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Roki Sasaki FIP 5.58 · ERA 5.33 · 81 IP
Gerrit Cole FIP 4.04 · ERA 4.04 · 49 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME
85°F DEW 46°F HUM 28% WIND 5 MPH CLOUD 83% 1015 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
LAD REST 4D NYY REST 4D LAD TRAVELED 2449 MI LAD CROSSED 3 TIME ZONES INTERLEAGUE
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH +12 ELO
The numbers
What could break the pick
Los Angeles Dodgers are 5-5 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.