Las Vegas Aces at Washington Mystics Prediction — July 22, 2026

THE PICK

LV Las Vegas AcesAWAY · 1535 ELO

Washington MysticsHOME · 1460 ELO WSH

49.2% WIN PROBABILITY 50.8%

The model makes Washington Mystics a 50.8% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 50.8% edge still loses 49.2 times in 100.

Prediction history

5 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

50.8% Washington Mystics ▼ -10.6

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

61.4% Washington Mystics ▲ +5.1

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

56.3% Washington Mystics ▲ +10.2

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

53.9% Las Vegas Aces ▼ -1.8

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

55.7% Las Vegas Aces OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 75 points at open.

The factors

CONTEXT ONLY

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS

INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

LV REST 1D WSH REST 1D LV TRAVELED 354 MI

AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER

LV Janiah Barker OUTDana Evans OUT

WSH Sonia Citron OUTDarianna Littlepage-Buggs OUT

The numbers

AWAY

Las Vegas Aces

ELO RATING1535

RANK#6

RECORD17-9

LAST 106-4

STREAKL1

HOME

Washington Mystics

ELO RATING1460

RANK#8

RECORD13-12

LAST 106-4

STREAKL1

Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Washington Mystics getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 75 points plus home advantage at CareFirst Arena produces the 50.8% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

Las Vegas Aces are 6-4 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.