THE PICK
LV Las Vegas AcesAWAY · 1535 ELO
@ Toronto TempoHOME · 1355 ELO TOR
65.1% WIN PROBABILITY 34.9%
The model makes Las Vegas Aces a 65.1% favorite — even playing on the road. One game is one game: a 65.1% edge still loses 34.9 times in 100.
Prediction history
6 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
65.1% Las Vegas Aces ▲ +4.9
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
60.2% Las Vegas Aces ▼ -9.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
69.5% Las Vegas Aces ▼ -2.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
72.1% Las Vegas Aces ▲ +2.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
70.0% Las Vegas Aces ▲ +1.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
68.9% Las Vegas Aces OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 180 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS
INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
LV REST 7D TOR REST 2D LV TRAVELED 1950 MI LV CROSSED 3 TIME ZONES
AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER
LV Janiah Barker OUTDana Evans OUT
TOR Ornella Bankole OUTNyara Sabally OUTTemi Fagbenle OUTBrittney Sykes OUT
IN THE NUMBER
REST -9 ELO
The numbers
What could break the pick
Toronto Tempo are 3-7 over their last ten. The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.