Indiana Fever 109, Las Vegas Aces 75 — July 12, 2026

THE CALL — GRADED

IND Indiana FeverAWAY · 1595 ELO

Las Vegas AcesHOME · 1535 ELO LV

35.3% WIN PROBABILITY 64.7%

Final: Indiana Fever 109, Las Vegas Aces 75. The Call had Las Vegas Aces at 64.7% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

Prediction history

3 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

64.7% Las Vegas Aces ▲ +2.3

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

62.4% Las Vegas Aces ▼ -2.8

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

65.2% Las Vegas Aces OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 60 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Indiana Fever

ELO RATING1595

RANK#4

RECORD15-11

LAST 105-5

STREAKL1

HOME

Las Vegas Aces

ELO RATING1535

RANK#6

RECORD17-9

LAST 106-4

STREAKL1

Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Las Vegas Aces getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 60 points plus home advantage at Michelob Ultra Arena produces the 64.7% call. Full methodology →