PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 12, 2026 ✓ RESULT

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Globe Life Field · Arlington, TX

THE CALL — GRADED

HOU Houston AstrosAWAY · 1484 ELO
@
Texas RangersHOME · 1490 ELO TEX
46.2% WIN PROBABILITY 53.8%

Final: Houston Astros 5, Texas Rangers 6. The Call had Texas Rangers at 53.8% — called it. Season record: 39–28.

The box

WALK-OFF
RHE
Houston Astros581
Texas Rangers6110
W Jacob Latz L Josh Hader

Prediction history

3 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

53.8% Texas Rangers ▼ -1.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
55.3% Texas Rangers ▲ +1.0
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
54.3% Texas Rangers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 6 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Houston Astros
ELO RATING1484
RANK#23
RECORD47-51
LAST 104-6
STREAKL1

HOME

Texas Rangers
ELO RATING1490
RANK#20
RECORD49-47
LAST 105-5
STREAKW1

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Texas Rangers getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 6 points plus home advantage at Globe Life Field produces the 53.8% call. Full methodology →