PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 11, 2026 ✗ RESULT

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Globe Life Field · Arlington, TX

THE CALL — GRADED

HOU Houston AstrosAWAY · 1484 ELO
@
Texas RangersHOME · 1490 ELO TEX
44.3% WIN PROBABILITY 55.7%

Final: Houston Astros 9, Texas Rangers 3. The Call had Texas Rangers at 55.7% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
Houston Astros9100
Texas Rangers371
W Peter Lambert L Kumar Rocker

Prediction history

3 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

55.7% Texas Rangers ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
55.3% Texas Rangers ▲ +1.0
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
54.3% Texas Rangers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 6 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Houston Astros
ELO RATING1484
RANK#23
RECORD47-51
LAST 104-6
STREAKL1

HOME

Texas Rangers
ELO RATING1490
RANK#20
RECORD49-47
LAST 105-5
STREAKW1

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Texas Rangers getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 6 points plus home advantage at Globe Life Field produces the 55.7% call. Full methodology →