FC Dallas at Portland Timbers Prediction — July 22, 2026

THE PICK

DAL FC DallasAWAY · 1552 ELO

Portland TimbersHOME · 1493 ELO POR

51.1% WIN PROBABILITY 48.9%

The model makes FC Dallas a 51.1% favorite — even playing on the road. One game is one game: a 51.1% edge still loses 48.9 times in 100.

Prediction history

2 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

51.1% FC Dallas ▼ -5.0

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

56.1% FC Dallas OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 59 points at open.

The factors

1 IN THE NUMBER

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME

91°F DEW 59°F HUM 34% WIND 6 MPH CLOUD 100% 1005 hPa

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

DAL REST 59D POR REST 5D DAL TRAVELED 984 MI DAL CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE DIVISIONAL MATCHUP

IN THE NUMBER

REST -9 ELO

The numbers

AWAY

FC Dallas

ELO RATING1552

RANK#5

RECORD7-4-4

LAST 105-2-3

STREAKW2

HOME

Portland Timbers

ELO RATING1493

RANK#18

RECORD5-2-8

LAST 104-1-5

STREAKW1

Ratings come from every MLS result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Portland Timbers getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 59 points plus home advantage at Providence Park produces the 51.1% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

Portland Timbers come in hot on a 1-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Lineup rotation, travel legs, and a single set piece move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.