THE PICK
DET Detroit TigersAWAY · 1508 ELO
@ Los Angeles AngelsHOME · 1462 ELO LAA
57.3% WIN PROBABILITY 42.7%
The model makes Detroit Tigers a 57.3% favorite — even playing on the road. One game is one game: a 57.3% edge still loses 42.7 times in 100.
Prediction history
7 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
57.3% Detroit Tigers ▲ +4.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.1% Detroit Tigers ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.8% Detroit Tigers ▼ -0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.5% Detroit Tigers ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.9% Detroit Tigers ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.6% Detroit Tigers ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
53.2% Detroit Tigers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 46 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Casey Mize FIP 2.69 · ERA 2.79 · 77.1 IP
Ryan Johnson FIP 6.37 · ERA 6.75 · 33.1 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · DAY GAME
86°F DEW 57°F HUM 37% WIND 11 MPH CLOUD 4% 1006 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
DET REST 0D LAA REST 0D DET TRAVELED 0 MI
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH -29 ELO
The numbers
What could break the pick
Los Angeles Angels are 2-8 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.