THE PICK
DET Detroit TigersAWAY · 1508 ELO
@ Los Angeles AngelsHOME · 1462 ELO LAA
52.3% WIN PROBABILITY 47.7%
The model makes Detroit Tigers a 52.3% favorite — even playing on the road. One game is one game: a 52.3% edge still loses 47.7 times in 100.
Prediction history
9 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
52.3% Detroit Tigers ▼ -0.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.1% Detroit Tigers ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.9% Detroit Tigers ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.6% Detroit Tigers ▼ -0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.3% Detroit Tigers ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.5% Detroit Tigers ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.9% Detroit Tigers ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.6% Detroit Tigers ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
53.2% Detroit Tigers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 46 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Troy Melton FIP 4.07 · ERA 1.82 · 49.1 IP
Reid Detmers FIP 3.35 · ERA 4.39 · 108.2 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME
74°F DEW 65°F HUM 73% WIND 9 MPH CLOUD 9% 1007 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
DET REST 4D LAA REST 4D DET TRAVELED 1970 MI DET CROSSED 2 TIME ZONES
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH +6 ELO
The numbers
What could break the pick
Los Angeles Angels are 2-8 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.