D.C. United at Houston Dynamo FC Prediction — July 22, 2026

THE PICK

DC D.C. UnitedAWAY · 1478 ELO

Houston Dynamo FCHOME · 1506 ELO HOU

37.6% WIN PROBABILITY 62.4%

The model makes Houston Dynamo FC a 62.4% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 62.4% edge still loses 37.6 times in 100.

Prediction history

1 UPDATE

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

OPEN

62.4% Houston Dynamo FC OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 28 points at open.

The factors

CONTEXT ONLY

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME

89°F DEW 73°F HUM 59% WIND 11 MPH CLOUD 2% 1012 hPa

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

DC REST 59D HOU REST 59D DC TRAVELED 1218 MI DC CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE

The numbers

AWAY

D.C. United

ELO RATING1478

RANK#22

RECORD4-6-5

LAST 102-5-3

STREAKD2

HOME

Houston Dynamo FC

ELO RATING1506

RANK#11

RECORD7-1-6

LAST 105-1-4

STREAKD1

Ratings come from every MLS result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Houston Dynamo FC getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 28 points plus home advantage at Shell Energy Stadium produces the 62.4% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

D.C. United are 2-5-3 over their last ten. The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Lineup rotation, travel legs, and a single set piece move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.