THE PICK
DAL Dallas WingsAWAY · 1686 ELO
@ Portland FireHOME · 1449 ELO POR
70.4% WIN PROBABILITY 29.6%
The model makes Dallas Wings a 70.4% favorite — even playing on the road.
One game is one game: a 70.4% edge still loses 29.6 times in 100.
Prediction history
5 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
70.4% Dallas Wings ▼ -8.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
78.6% Dallas Wings ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
78.9% Dallas Wings ▲ +1.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
77.2% Dallas Wings ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
76.7% Dallas Wings OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 237 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS
INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
DAL REST 1D POR REST 3D DAL TRAVELED 1620 MI DAL CROSSED 2 TIME ZONES DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER
DAL Costanza Verona OUTHaley Jones OUT
POR Sarah Ashlee Barker OUTKarlie Samuelson DAY-TO-DAYSania Feagin OUT
IN THE NUMBER
REST +6 ELO
The numbers
AWAY
Dallas Wings ELO RATING1686
RANK#3
RECORD18-8
LAST 107-3
STREAKW5
HOME
Portland Fire ELO RATING1449
RANK#9
RECORD11-16
LAST 104-6
STREAKW1
Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Portland Fire getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 237 points plus home advantage at Moda Center produces
the 70.4% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Portland Fire come in hot on a 1-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
Even strong favorites lose outright about once in three tries at this probability. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.