THE PICK
CON Connecticut SunAWAY · 1355 ELO
@ Phoenix MercuryHOME · 1384 ELO PHX
34.4% WIN PROBABILITY 65.6%
The model makes Phoenix Mercury a 65.6% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 65.6% edge still loses 34.4 times in 100.
Prediction history
6 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
65.6% Phoenix Mercury ▼ -2.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
67.9% Phoenix Mercury ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
68.3% Phoenix Mercury ▼ -2.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
70.5% Phoenix Mercury ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
70.1% Phoenix Mercury ▲ +1.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
68.7% Phoenix Mercury OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 29 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS
INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
CON REST 2D PHX REST 3D CON TRAVELED 2241 MI CON CROSSED 2 TIME ZONES
AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER
CON Saniya Rivers OUTAshlon Jackson OUTAneesah Morrow OUTBrittney Griner OUT
PHX Sami Whitcomb DAY-TO-DAYNatasha Mack OUTJovana Nogic OUT
IN THE NUMBER
REST +3 ELO
The numbers
AWAY
Connecticut Sun ELO RATING1355
RANK#14
RECORD7-19
LAST 104-6
STREAKW1
HOME
Phoenix Mercury ELO RATING1384
RANK#12
RECORD9-17
LAST 104-6
STREAKL4
Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Phoenix Mercury getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 29 points plus home advantage at Mortgage Matchup Center produces
the 65.6% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Connecticut Sun come in hot on a 1-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.