THE PICK
CON Connecticut SunAWAY · 1355 ELO
@ Indiana FeverHOME · 1595 ELO IND
13.5% WIN PROBABILITY 86.5%
The model makes Indiana Fever a 86.5% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 86.5% edge still loses 13.5 times in 100.
Prediction history
4 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
86.5% Indiana Fever ▼ -2.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
88.8% Indiana Fever ▼ -0.9
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
89.7% Indiana Fever ▲ +4.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
85.3% Indiana Fever OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 240 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS
INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
CON REST 2D IND REST 3D CON TRAVELED 1497 MI CON CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER
CON Saniya Rivers OUTAshlon Jackson OUTAneesah Morrow OUTBrittney Griner OUT
IND Caitlin Clark OUT
IN THE NUMBER
REST +3 ELO
The numbers
AWAY
Connecticut Sun ELO RATING1355
RANK#14
RECORD7-19
LAST 104-6
STREAKW1
HOME
Indiana Fever ELO RATING1595
RANK#4
RECORD15-11
LAST 105-5
STREAKL1
Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Indiana Fever getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 240 points plus home advantage at Gainbridge Fieldhouse produces
the 86.5% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Connecticut Sun come in hot on a 1-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
Even strong favorites lose outright about once in three tries at this probability. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.