PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 11, 2026 ✗ RESULT

Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins

loanDepot park · Miami, FL

THE CALL — GRADED

CLE Cleveland GuardiansAWAY · 1509 ELO
@
Miami MarlinsHOME · 1523 ELO MIA
41.8% WIN PROBABILITY 58.2%

Final: Cleveland Guardians 4, Miami Marlins 1. The Call had Miami Marlins at 58.2% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
Cleveland Guardians4110
Miami Marlins171
W Tanner Bibee L Eury Pérez SV Colin Holderman

Prediction history

3 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

58.2% Miami Marlins ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.7% Miami Marlins ▼ -0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
58.3% Miami Marlins OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 14 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Cleveland Guardians
ELO RATING1509
RANK#12
RECORD51-46
LAST 106-4
STREAKW4

HOME

Miami Marlins
ELO RATING1523
RANK#7
RECORD52-45
LAST 106-4
STREAKL3

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Miami Marlins getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 14 points plus home advantage at loanDepot park produces the 58.2% call. Full methodology →