THE PICK
CIN Cincinnati RedsAWAY · 1469 ELO
@ Colorado RockiesHOME · 1454 ELO COL
48.8% WIN PROBABILITY 51.2%
The model makes Colorado Rockies a 51.2% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 51.2% edge still loses 48.8 times in 100.
Prediction history
6 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
51.2% Colorado Rockies ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.6% Colorado Rockies ▲ +0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.0% Colorado Rockies ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.7% Colorado Rockies ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.0% Colorado Rockies ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
51.4% Colorado Rockies OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 15 points at open.
The factors
CONTEXT ONLYEverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Hunter Greene FIP 2.13 · ERA 6.97 · 10.1 IP
Ryan Feltner FIP 5.06 · ERA 4.55 · 63.1 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · DAY GAME
98°F DEW 40°F HUM 14% WIND 1 MPH CLOUD 0% 842 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
CIN REST 0D COL REST 0D CIN TRAVELED 0 MI
The numbers
What could break the pick
Cincinnati Reds are 4-6 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.