PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 18, 2026 ● LIVE

Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies

Coors Field · Denver, CO

THE PICK

CIN Cincinnati RedsAWAY · 1469 ELO
@
Colorado RockiesHOME · 1454 ELO COL
48.8% WIN PROBABILITY 51.2%

The model makes Colorado Rockies a 51.2% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 51.2% edge still loses 48.8 times in 100.

Prediction history

6 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

51.2% Colorado Rockies ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.6% Colorado Rockies ▲ +0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.0% Colorado Rockies ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.7% Colorado Rockies ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.0% Colorado Rockies ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
51.4% Colorado Rockies OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 15 points at open.

The factors

CONTEXT ONLY

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · DAY GAME

93°F DEW 44°F HUM 18% WIND 10 MPH CLOUD 9% 849 hPa

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

CIN REST 0D COL REST 0D CIN TRAVELED 0 MI

The numbers

AWAY

Cincinnati Reds
ELO RATING1469
RANK#25
RECORD43-52
LAST 104-6
STREAKL2

HOME

Colorado Rockies
ELO RATING1454
RANK#28
RECORD39-59
LAST 104-6
STREAKL2

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Colorado Rockies getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 15 points plus home advantage at Coors Field produces the 51.2% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

Cincinnati Reds are 4-6 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.