THE PICK
CIN Cincinnati RedsAWAY · 1469 ELO
@ Colorado RockiesHOME · 1454 ELO COL
48.8% WIN PROBABILITY 51.2%
The model makes Colorado Rockies a 51.2% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 51.2% edge still loses 48.8 times in 100.
Prediction history
8 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
51.2% Colorado Rockies ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.1% Colorado Rockies ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.2% Colorado Rockies ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.6% Colorado Rockies ▲ +0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.0% Colorado Rockies ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.7% Colorado Rockies ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.0% Colorado Rockies ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
51.4% Colorado Rockies OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 15 points at open.
The factors
CONTEXT ONLYEverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Brady Singer FIP 5.61 · ERA 4.72 · 89.2 IP
Gabriel Hughes FIP 2.32 · ERA 3.00 · 9 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME
91°F DEW 43°F HUM 19% WIND 8 MPH CLOUD 29% 845 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
CIN REST 4D COL REST 4D CIN TRAVELED 1092 MI CIN CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE
The numbers
What could break the pick
Cincinnati Reds are 4-6 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.