THE PICK
CHW Chicago White SoxAWAY · 1518 ELO
@ Toronto Blue JaysHOME · 1485 ELO TOR
51.2% WIN PROBABILITY 48.8%
The model makes Chicago White Sox a 51.2% favorite — even playing on the road. One game is one game: a 51.2% edge still loses 48.8 times in 100.
Prediction history
6 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
51.2% Chicago White Sox ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.0% Chicago White Sox ▲ +0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.4% Chicago White Sox ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.2% Chicago White Sox ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.0% Toronto Blue Jays ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
50.2% Toronto Blue Jays OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 33 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Davis Martin FIP 3.09 · ERA 3.41 · 100.1 IP
Shane Bieber FIP 8.48 · ERA 7.64 · 17.2 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · RETRACTABLE ROOF · DAY GAME
85°F DEW 69°F HUM 60% WIND 17 MPH GUSTS 31 MPH CLOUD 91% 993 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
CHW REST 0D TOR REST 0D CHW TRAVELED 0 MI
IN THE NUMBER
WXWIND VARIANCE
The numbers
What could break the pick
Toronto Blue Jays are 5-5 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.