THE PICK
CHW Chicago White SoxAWAY · 1518 ELO
@ Toronto Blue JaysHOME · 1485 ELO TOR
49.0% WIN PROBABILITY 51.0%
The model makes Toronto Blue Jays a 51.0% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 51.0% edge still loses 49.0 times in 100.
Prediction history
7 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
51.0% Toronto Blue Jays ▲ +2.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.2% Chicago White Sox ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.0% Chicago White Sox ▲ +0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.4% Chicago White Sox ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.2% Chicago White Sox ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.0% Toronto Blue Jays ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.2% Toronto Blue Jays OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 33 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Anthony Kay FIP 4.97 · ERA 4.23 · 89.1 IP
Spencer Miles FIP 3.02 · ERA 2.85 · 60 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · RETRACTABLE ROOF · NIGHT GAME
71°F DEW 62°F HUM 74% WIND 5 MPH CLOUD 98% 1005 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
CHW REST 4D TOR REST 4D CHW TRAVELED 436 MI CHW CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH +16 ELO
The numbers
AWAY
Chicago White Sox ELO RATING1518
RANK#8
RECORD50-45
LAST 105-5
STREAKW3
HOME
Toronto Blue Jays ELO RATING1485
RANK#22
RECORD45-51
LAST 105-5
STREAKL2
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Toronto Blue Jays getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 33 points plus home advantage at Rogers Centre produces
the 51.0% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Chicago White Sox come in hot on a 3-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.