THE PICK
CHW Chicago White SoxAWAY · 1518 ELO
@ Texas RangersHOME · 1490 ELO TEX
50.6% WIN PROBABILITY 49.4%
The model makes Chicago White Sox a 50.6% favorite — even playing on the road.
One game is one game: a 50.6% edge still loses 49.4 times in 100.
Prediction history
5 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
50.6% Chicago White Sox ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.8% Chicago White Sox ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.3% Chicago White Sox ▲ +0.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.5% Texas Rangers ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.7% Texas Rangers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 28 points at open.
The factors
CONTEXT ONLY Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · RETRACTABLE ROOF · NIGHT GAME
102°F DEW 55°F HUM 22% WIND 9 MPH CLOUD 0% 990 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
CHW REST 0D TEX REST 0D CHW TRAVELED 0 MI
The numbers
AWAY
Chicago White Sox ELO RATING1518
RANK#8
RECORD50-45
LAST 105-5
STREAKW3
HOME
Texas Rangers ELO RATING1490
RANK#20
RECORD49-47
LAST 105-5
STREAKW1
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Texas Rangers getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 28 points plus home advantage at Globe Life Field produces
the 50.6% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Texas Rangers come in hot on a 1-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.