THE PICK
CHI Chicago SkyAWAY · 1401 ELO
@ New York LibertyHOME · 1556 ELO NY
20.8% WIN PROBABILITY 79.2%
The model makes New York Liberty a 79.2% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 79.2% edge still loses 20.8 times in 100.
Prediction history
5 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
79.2% New York Liberty ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
79.7% New York Liberty ▼ -1.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
81.4% New York Liberty ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
81.0% New York Liberty ▼ -1.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
82.8% New York Liberty OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 155 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS
INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
CHI REST 2D NY REST 1D CHI TRAVELED 755 MI CHI CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER
CHI Maddy Westbeld OUTChloe Bibby OUTSkylar Diggins OUTDiJonai Carrington OUT
NY Satou Sabally OUTRebecca Allen DAY-TO-DAYPauline Astier DAY-TO-DAYLeonie Fiebich OUT
IN THE NUMBER
REST -3 ELO
The numbers
AWAY
Chicago Sky ELO RATING1401
RANK#11
RECORD8-18
LAST 104-6
STREAKW1
HOME
New York Liberty ELO RATING1556
RANK#5
RECORD15-12
LAST 103-7
STREAKL3
Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with New York Liberty getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 155 points plus home advantage at Barclays Center produces
the 79.2% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Chicago Sky come in hot on a 1-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
Even strong favorites lose outright about once in three tries at this probability. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.