THE PICK
CHI Chicago SkyAWAY · 1401 ELO
@ Atlanta DreamHOME · 1481 ELO ATL
28.4% WIN PROBABILITY 71.6%
The model makes Atlanta Dream a 71.6% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 71.6% edge still loses 28.4 times in 100.
Prediction history
6 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
71.6% Atlanta Dream ▼ -2.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
73.7% Atlanta Dream ▲ +2.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
71.1% Atlanta Dream ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
70.6% Atlanta Dream ▼ -7.0
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
77.6% Atlanta Dream ▲ +3.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
74.5% Atlanta Dream OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 80 points at open.
The factors
CONTEXT ONLY Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS
INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
CHI REST 1D ATL REST 1D CHI TRAVELED 594 MI DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER
CHI Maddy Westbeld OUTChloe Bibby OUTSkylar Diggins OUTDiJonai Carrington OUT
ATL Brionna Jones OUTAngel Reese DAY-TO-DAY
The numbers
AWAY
Chicago Sky ELO RATING1401
RANK#11
RECORD8-18
LAST 104-6
STREAKW1
HOME
Atlanta Dream ELO RATING1481
RANK#7
RECORD15-11
LAST 104-6
STREAKW1
Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Atlanta Dream getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 80 points plus home advantage at Gateway Center Arena produces
the 71.6% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Chicago Sky come in hot on a 1-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
Even strong favorites lose outright about once in three tries at this probability. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.