Chicago Fire FC at Inter Miami CF Prediction — July 22, 2026

THE PICK

CHI Chicago Fire FCAWAY · 1542 ELO

Inter Miami CFHOME · 1585 ELO MIA

36.0% WIN PROBABILITY 64.0%

The model makes Inter Miami CF a 64.0% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 64.0% edge still loses 36.0 times in 100.

Prediction history

2 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

64.0% Inter Miami CF ▼ -1.6

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

65.6% Inter Miami CF OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 43 points at open.

The factors

1 IN THE NUMBER

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME

89°F DEW 69°F HUM 53% WIND 11 MPH CLOUD 10% 1016 hPa

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

CHI REST 59D MIA REST 58D CHI TRAVELED 1186 MI CHI CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE DIVISIONAL MATCHUP

IN THE NUMBER

REST -3 ELO

The numbers

AWAY

Chicago Fire FC

ELO RATING1542

RANK#6

RECORD8-2-4

LAST 107-1-2

STREAKW3

HOME

Inter Miami CF

ELO RATING1585

RANK#4

RECORD9-4-2

LAST 106-3-1

STREAKW4

Ratings come from every MLS result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Inter Miami CF getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 43 points plus home advantage at Nu Stadium produces the 64.0% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

Chicago Fire FC come in hot on a 3-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in. The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Lineup rotation, travel legs, and a single set piece move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.