PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 11, 2026 ✓ RESULT

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, OH

THE CALL — GRADED

CHC Chicago CubsAWAY · 1527 ELO
@
Cincinnati RedsHOME · 1469 ELO CIN
53.0% WIN PROBABILITY 47.0%

Final: Chicago Cubs 5, Cincinnati Reds 3. The Call had Chicago Cubs at 53.0% — called it. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
Chicago Cubs590
Cincinnati Reds3110
W Drew Pomeranz L Julian Garcia SV Trent Thornton

Prediction history

3 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

53.0% Chicago Cubs ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.1% Chicago Cubs ▼ -1.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
54.4% Chicago Cubs OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 58 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Chicago Cubs
ELO RATING1527
RANK#5
RECORD54-42
LAST 106-4
STREAKW2

HOME

Cincinnati Reds
ELO RATING1469
RANK#25
RECORD43-52
LAST 104-6
STREAKL2

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Cincinnati Reds getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 58 points plus home advantage at Great American Ball Park produces the 53.0% call. Full methodology →