Chicago Cubs 0, Cincinnati Reds 4 — July 10, 2026

THE CALL — GRADED

CHC Chicago CubsAWAY · 1527 ELO

Cincinnati RedsHOME · 1469 ELO CIN

54.4% WIN PROBABILITY 45.6%

Final: Chicago Cubs 0, Cincinnati Reds 4. The Call had Chicago Cubs at 54.4% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

The box

SHUTOUT

	R	H	E
Chicago Cubs	0	4	0
Cincinnati Reds	4	13	0

W Hunter Greene L Shota Imanaga

Prediction history

1 UPDATE

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

OPEN

54.4% Chicago Cubs OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 58 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Chicago Cubs

ELO RATING1527

RANK#5

RECORD54-42

LAST 106-4

STREAKW2

HOME

Cincinnati Reds

ELO RATING1469

RANK#25

RECORD43-52

LAST 104-6

STREAKL2

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Cincinnati Reds getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 58 points plus home advantage at Great American Ball Park produces the 54.4% call. Full methodology →