CF Montréal at Nashville SC Prediction — July 22, 2026

THE PICK

MTL CF MontréalAWAY · 1453 ELO

Nashville SCHOME · 1608 ELO NSH

22.7% WIN PROBABILITY 77.3%

The model makes Nashville SC a 77.3% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 77.3% edge still loses 22.7 times in 100.

Prediction history

2 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

77.3% Nashville SC ▲ +0.3

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

77.0% Nashville SC OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 155 points at open.

The factors

1 IN THE NUMBER

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME

76°F DEW 62°F HUM 61% WIND 8 MPH CLOUD 100% 999 hPa

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

MTL REST 5D NSH REST 4D MTL TRAVELED 947 MI MTL CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE DIVISIONAL MATCHUP

IN THE NUMBER

REST -3 ELO

The numbers

AWAY

CF Montréal

ELO RATING1453

RANK#24

RECORD4-3-8

LAST 103-3-4

STREAKD2

HOME

Nashville SC

ELO RATING1608

RANK#1

RECORD10-3-1

LAST 107-2-1

STREAKW3

Ratings come from every MLS result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Nashville SC getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 155 points plus home advantage at Geodis Park produces the 77.3% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

CF Montréal are 3-3-4 over their last ten. Even strong favorites lose outright about once in three tries at this probability. Lineup rotation, travel legs, and a single set piece move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.