PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 12, 2026 ✓ RESULT

Boston Red Sox at New York Mets

Citi Field · New York, NY

THE CALL — GRADED

BOS Boston Red SoxAWAY · 1532 ELO
@
New York MetsHOME · 1465 ELO NYM
55.6% WIN PROBABILITY 44.4%

Final: Boston Red Sox 3, New York Mets 2. The Call had Boston Red Sox at 55.6% — called it. Season record: 39–28.

The box

10 INNINGS
RHE
Boston Red Sox340
New York Mets262

10 INNINGS

W Aroldis Chapman L Brooks Raley SV Garrett Whitlock

Prediction history

3 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

55.6% Boston Red Sox ▲ +1.0
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.6% Boston Red Sox ▲ +1.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
53.5% Boston Red Sox OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 67 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Boston Red Sox
ELO RATING1532
RANK#3
RECORD47-48
LAST 1010-0
STREAKW10

HOME

New York Mets
ELO RATING1465
RANK#26
RECORD41-57
LAST 105-5
STREAKW1

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with New York Mets getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 67 points plus home advantage at Citi Field produces the 55.6% call. Full methodology →