Boston Red Sox 4, New York Mets 0 — July 11, 2026

THE CALL — GRADED

BOS Boston Red SoxAWAY · 1532 ELO

New York MetsHOME · 1465 ELO NYM

54.6% WIN PROBABILITY 45.4%

Final: Boston Red Sox 4, New York Mets 0. The Call had Boston Red Sox at 54.6% — called it. Season record: 39–28.

The box

SHUTOUT

	R	H	E
Boston Red Sox	4	6	0
New York Mets	0	3	0

W Jovani Morán L Freddy Peralta

Prediction history

2 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

54.6% Boston Red Sox ▲ +1.1

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

53.5% Boston Red Sox OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 67 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Boston Red Sox

ELO RATING1532

RANK#3

RECORD47-48

LAST 1010-0

STREAKW10

HOME

New York Mets

ELO RATING1465

RANK#26

RECORD41-57

LAST 105-5

STREAKW1

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with New York Mets getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 67 points plus home advantage at Citi Field produces the 54.6% call. Full methodology →