THE PICK
BAL Baltimore OriolesAWAY · 1500 ELO
@ Houston AstrosHOME · 1484 ELO HOU
49.9% WIN PROBABILITY 50.1%
The model makes Houston Astros a 50.1% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 50.1% edge still loses 49.9 times in 100.
Prediction history
6 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
50.1% Houston Astros ▼ -1.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.2% Houston Astros ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.4% Houston Astros ▼ -0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.0% Houston Astros ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.7% Houston Astros ▼ -0.9
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.6% Houston Astros OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 16 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Trevor Rogers FIP 4.07 · ERA 4.48 · 90.1 IP
Spencer Arrighetti FIP 5.04 · ERA 4.50 · 82 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · RETRACTABLE ROOF · DAY GAME
97°F DEW 67°F HUM 37% WIND 6 MPH CLOUD 100% 1015 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
BAL REST 0D HOU REST 0D BAL TRAVELED 0 MI
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH -8 ELO
The numbers
AWAY
Baltimore Orioles ELO RATING1500
RANK#17
RECORD46-51
LAST 107-3
STREAKW4
HOME
Houston Astros ELO RATING1484
RANK#23
RECORD47-51
LAST 104-6
STREAKL1
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Houston Astros getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 16 points plus home advantage at Daikin Park produces
the 50.1% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Baltimore Orioles come in hot on a 4-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.