THE PICK
BAL Baltimore OriolesAWAY · 1500 ELO
@ Boston Red SoxHOME · 1532 ELO BOS
42.0% WIN PROBABILITY 58.0%
The model makes Boston Red Sox a 58.0% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 58.0% edge still loses 42.0 times in 100.
Prediction history
5 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
58.0% Boston Red Sox ▲ +0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.3% Boston Red Sox ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.8% Boston Red Sox ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.6% Boston Red Sox ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
58.1% Boston Red Sox OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 32 points at open.
The factors
CONTEXT ONLY Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME
73°F DEW 71°F HUM 95% WIND 8 MPH GUSTS 20 MPH CLOUD 42% RAIN 43% 1003 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
BAL REST 0D BOS REST 0D BAL TRAVELED 0 MI DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
The numbers
AWAY
Baltimore Orioles ELO RATING1500
RANK#17
RECORD46-51
LAST 107-3
STREAKW4
HOME
Boston Red Sox ELO RATING1532
RANK#3
RECORD47-48
LAST 1010-0
STREAKW10
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Boston Red Sox getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 32 points plus home advantage at Fenway Park produces
the 58.0% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Baltimore Orioles come in hot on a 4-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.