THE PICK
ATL Atlanta DreamAWAY · 1481 ELO
@ Toronto TempoHOME · 1355 ELO TOR
57.0% WIN PROBABILITY 43.0%
The model makes Atlanta Dream a 57.0% favorite — even playing on the road. One game is one game: a 57.0% edge still loses 43.0 times in 100.
Prediction history
7 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
57.0% Atlanta Dream ▲ +5.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.8% Atlanta Dream ▲ +3.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.5% Toronto Tempo ▲ +3.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.7% Atlanta Dream ▼ -9.0
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
60.7% Atlanta Dream ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
60.2% Atlanta Dream ▲ +2.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
58.0% Atlanta Dream OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 126 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS
INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
ATL REST 3D TOR REST 2D ATL TRAVELED 743 MI ATL CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER
ATL Brionna Jones OUTAngel Reese DAY-TO-DAY
TOR Ornella Bankole OUTNyara Sabally OUTTemi Fagbenle OUTBrittney Sykes OUT
IN THE NUMBER
REST -3 ELO
The numbers
What could break the pick
Toronto Tempo are 3-7 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.