PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 12, 2026 ✗ RESULT

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, MO

THE CALL — GRADED

ATL Atlanta BravesAWAY · 1528 ELO
@
St. Louis CardinalsHOME · 1508 ELO STL
48.9% WIN PROBABILITY 51.1%

Final: Atlanta Braves 4, St. Louis Cardinals 3. The Call had St. Louis Cardinals at 51.1% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
Atlanta Braves470
St. Louis Cardinals342
W Tyler Kinley L JoJo Romero SV Raisel Iglesias

Prediction history

5 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

51.1% St. Louis Cardinals ▼ -2.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.6% St. Louis Cardinals ▲ +1.0
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.6% St. Louis Cardinals ▲ +2.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.1% St. Louis Cardinals ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
50.4% Atlanta Braves OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 20 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Atlanta Braves
ELO RATING1528
RANK#4
RECORD55-40
LAST 105-5
STREAKW1

HOME

St. Louis Cardinals
ELO RATING1508
RANK#13
RECORD50-45
LAST 104-6
STREAKL1

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with St. Louis Cardinals getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 20 points plus home advantage at Busch Stadium produces the 51.1% call. Full methodology →