PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 11, 2026 ✗ RESULT

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, MO

THE CALL — GRADED

ATL Atlanta BravesAWAY · 1528 ELO
@
St. Louis CardinalsHOME · 1508 ELO STL
50.9% WIN PROBABILITY 49.1%

Final: Atlanta Braves 1, St. Louis Cardinals 4. The Call had Atlanta Braves at 50.9% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
Atlanta Braves160
St. Louis Cardinals450
W Matthew Liberatore L Reynaldo López SV Riley O'Brien

Prediction history

3 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

50.9% Atlanta Braves ▲ +1.0
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.1% St. Louis Cardinals ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
50.4% Atlanta Braves OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 20 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Atlanta Braves
ELO RATING1528
RANK#4
RECORD55-40
LAST 105-5
STREAKW1

HOME

St. Louis Cardinals
ELO RATING1508
RANK#13
RECORD50-45
LAST 104-6
STREAKL1

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with St. Louis Cardinals getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 20 points plus home advantage at Busch Stadium produces the 50.9% call. Full methodology →