THE PICK
ATH AthleticsAWAY · 1440 ELO
@ Arizona DiamondbacksHOME · 1505 ELO ARI
37.5% WIN PROBABILITY 62.5%
The model makes Arizona Diamondbacks a 62.5% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 62.5% edge still loses 37.5 times in 100.
Prediction history
7 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
62.5% Arizona Diamondbacks ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
62.0% Arizona Diamondbacks ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
62.5% Arizona Diamondbacks ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
62.0% Arizona Diamondbacks ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
61.5% Arizona Diamondbacks ▲ +1.0
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
60.5% Arizona Diamondbacks ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
60.4% Arizona Diamondbacks OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 65 points at open.
The factors
CONTEXT ONLYEverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · RETRACTABLE ROOF · NIGHT GAME
102°F DEW 58°F HUM 24% WIND 11 MPH CLOUD 15% 968 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
ATH REST 0D ARI REST 0D ATH TRAVELED 636 MI ATH CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE INTERLEAGUE
The numbers
What could break the pick
Athletics are 1-9 over their last ten. The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.