PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 11, 2026 ✗ RESULT

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, CA

THE CALL — GRADED

ARI Arizona DiamondbacksAWAY · 1505 ELO
@
Los Angeles DodgersHOME · 1554 ELO LAD
34.9% WIN PROBABILITY 65.1%

Final: Arizona Diamondbacks 9, Los Angeles Dodgers 2. The Call had Los Angeles Dodgers at 65.1% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
Arizona Diamondbacks990
Los Angeles Dodgers261
W Brandon Pfaadt L Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Prediction history

3 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

65.1% Los Angeles Dodgers ▲ +1.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
63.3% Los Angeles Dodgers ▼ -1.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
65.0% Los Angeles Dodgers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 49 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Arizona Diamondbacks
ELO RATING1505
RANK#15
RECORD49-47
LAST 106-4
STREAKW4

HOME

Los Angeles Dodgers
ELO RATING1554
RANK#2
RECORD61-36
LAST 105-5
STREAKL3

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Los Angeles Dodgers getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 49 points plus home advantage at Dodger Stadium produces the 65.1% call. Full methodology →